A Deeper Dive Into The Ethnicity Of Births In England & Wales: 2007 to 2024

I have previously written for ConservativeHome and Pimlico Journal on demographic change in the UK, specifically focusing on the decline of the White British ethnic group — the host population, and how given current levels of immigration and declining birth rates amongst this group, they are on-track to become a minority in their own country, sometime around the middle of this century.

Projections vary on exactly when this will happen, David Coleman, a demographer from Oxford University, projected back in 2010 that White Britons would become a minority by 2066, though given recent levels of immigration and declining birth rates, he has recently revised his prediction. In an article published in The Daily Mail, David Coleman now estimates that White Britons will become a minority by 2053, 13 years earlier than his previous prediction.

Other projections are more optimistic, recently Matt Goodwin, in partnership with the The Centre for Heterodox Social Science, put out a report that estimates White Britons will become a minority by 2063, 10 years later than the current estimate by David Coleman.

Whether the threshold is passed in the 2050s or 2060s, the exact date the transition happens is largely irrelevant, the fact is, on current trends, it's going to happen sometime around the middle of this century, and this transition will happen much sooner amongst younger people and this is the demographic that matters, as they are the future of the country.

At the time of the 2021 census, the median age of the White Brit was 45 years old, and increase from a median age of 42 years old, at the time of the 2011 census.

By the time the 2031 census rolls around, assuming it goes ahead, then the median age of the White Brit will likely be approaching 50~ years old, many of these people won't have more children (assuming they had any in the first place), many will be nearing retirement age and a significant percentage will already be retired or in care homes.

The census is a lagging indicator for demographic change, consider that around 3% of households didn't complete the 2021 census, that's around 850,000 households and the census is unlikely to capture those who are in the UK illegally, with a report from 2017 estimating as many as 1.2 million illegal immigrants could be in the UK — a figure that is certainly higher now, given that over 167,000 have entered the UK via small boat since 2018.

If you truly want a preview on the demographic future of a nation, you need only look at the ethnicity of its births.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has routinely published the ethnicity of births in England & Wales since 2007 and the latest release covering 2024.

The Birth characteristics 2022 document covers 2007 to 2022 and the information on ethnicity for these years can be found on Table 20. For 2023 and 2024, you need to look at the 2023 and 2024 linked births documents, where information on ethnicity can be found on Table 5 for both documents..

If we plot the percentage of births in England & Wales that are White British, they have declined from a peak of 66.25% in 2010, to just 53.65% of births in 2024, a decline of 12.6% over a 14-year period.

The increase in the percentage of White British births from 2007/2008 to 2009/2011 is likely due to more births having a stated ethnicity.

If we plot the percentage of births in England & Wales where an ethnicity isn't stated, they have fallen rapidly. In 2007, 9.05% of births in England & Wales did not have an ethnicity stated, by 2010, this number had fallen to just 3.99% and has declined to just 3% of births in the latest 2024 release.

The percentage of Other White births has also fallen post-Brexit, aligning with the exodus of EU nationals we've seen since 2020. Other White births peaked in 2020, at 11.76% of births and have fallen to 10.06% in 2024.

Ethnicities which have seen the biggest increase in recent years are Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian and Black African.

Bangladeshi births were 1.48% of births in 2019 and have increased to 2.19% in 2024.

Pakistani births were 4.3% of births in 2019 and have increased to 5.59% in 2024.

Indian births were 3.22% of births in 2019 and have increased to 5.4% in 2024.

But the most notable increase has to be those in the Black African category, this ethnic group made up 3.37% of births in 2019 and in 2024, accounted for 5.36% of births, the sharpest rise of any ethnic group.

The changes in the other ethnic groups aren't as notable, but I have included them below.

Other Asian births were 2.52% in 2019 and have increased to 3.69% in 2024.

Black Caribbean births were 0.85% in 2019 and have declined to 0.81% in 2024.

Other Black births were 0.59% in 2019 and have increased to 0.77% in 2024.

Mixed births were 6.54% of births in 2019 and have increased slightly to 6.85% of births in 2024.

And finally we have Other Ethnic births, this would include for example Arabs, this group stood at 2.42% of births in 2019 and have increased to 2.57% of births in 2024.

I have also created a GIF that shows the change in the demographics of births in England & Wales from 2007 to 2024 and includes all ethnicities collected by the ONS, as well as including the percentage of births where no ethnicity is stated.

The increase in non-EU migration since Brexit has led to a noticeable change in the demographic makeup of births in England & Wales, and much of the recent immigration into Britain since 2020, dubbed the Boriswave, have been immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and various African countries, which explains the increases we see above.

I suspect many non-EU nationals come to the UK and choose to have children in Britain, because while Britain doesn't have birth right citizenship since the British Nationality Act 1981 and while nobody from the Boriswave will have obtained ILR as of the time of publication, any child born in the UK to someone who has ILR status or obtains ILR status in future, can apply to become a British citizen.

"Children born in the UK who were not automatically British at birth can be registered as British citizens once one of their parents gains ILR Settled Status"

Many of these recent immigrants are likely having children in the UK, in the hope they will obtain ILR in the years ahead, at which point their children can become British citizens, even if when they were born, neither of their parents were British citizens or had ILR status at the time of their birth.

Effectively we are looking at a type of anchor baby, come to the UK, have children, get granted ILR status at a later date, which has a 95% grant rate and these children become British citizens.

And once an immigrant obtains ILR, they can apply to bring family members over and the entire cycle can repeat again and again, chain migration ad infinitum, hastening the demographic replacement of the native British population, which we see bearing out in the figures above.

If we look at the latest summary for the year ending March 2025, we can see that 76,000 family visas were issued.

Family visas should be getting a lot more attention, because this has and continues to embed chain migration into our system.

And even if for some reason, the parents don't get ILR status, if the child is born in the UK and remains in the UK until they are 10 years old, they can get British citizenship this way.

"The rules state that where a child who was born in the UK has lived here until the age of 10, they may either be automatically a British citizen or if not, they may be able to register."

In essence, our settlement and citizenship rules are very loose and allow people to come to Britain and anchor themselves here very quickly, within as little as six years, it's possible to arrive in the country, have kids, obtain ILR and then start bringing over relatives and other family members, all of whom can repeat this process for their own families.

Drastic action is required to course correct, and unfortunately neither the Conservatives or Reform are even acknowledging the above as an issue, let alone talking about how this would be stopped and reversed.