Time To Face Up To The Widespread Failure Of Devolution

In 1979, the people of Wales gave their verdict on devolution. It was emphatic and beyond dispute: 79.7% voted No, on a turnout of nearly 60%. Only one in five voters wanted an Assembly. That was not a marginal result. It was a crushing rejection.

Yet the political class refused to accept it. They waited 18 years and asked the same question again. This time, in 1997, the outcome could not have been narrower: 50.3% Yes to 49.7% No, on a 50% turnout. Strip away the numbers, and the truth is this: only one in four eligible Welsh voters actively supported the creation of the Assembly.

That is no democratic mandate for constitutional revolution. It is manufactured consent, achieved through attrition, low turnout, and the weight of the Labour machine. Devolution began not with a clear decision of the people, but with a process which ignored the most decisive referendum result in modern Welsh history.

Wales: A Record of Failure

Far from delivering prosperity, devolution has presided over stagnation. Wales remains one of the poorest parts of the UK, with a structural fiscal deficit which is covered by transfers from English taxpayers. After 25 years of devolved government, the gap with English regions has not narrowed. It has widened.

Health and education outcomes in Wales are consistently worse than in England. NHS waiting lists are longer, treatment times slower, and schools underperform in international comparisons. Far from raising standards, devolution has delivered decline.

Devolution has created an additional tier of government, with its own bureaucracy, administration, and costs. Cardiff Bay spends millions duplicating departments and structures that already exist in Whitehall, while services for ordinary people fail to improve. This is not efficiency. It is waste.

Turnout in Welsh elections remains pitifully low. The Assembly and now the Senedd have never inspired public loyalty or respect. Accountability has suffered: when things go wrong, Cardiff blames Westminster and Westminster blames Cardiff. The public are left with confusion and indifference.

Scotland: Different, But The Same

Scotland presents a striking contrast to Wales in terms of democratic mandate, yet the outcomes remain disappointingly similar. In 1997, Scotland voted emphatically for devolution: 74.3% supported establishing a Parliament on a 60.1% turnout, with 63.5% backing tax-varying powers. Seventeen years later, in 2014, the opinion on the results was clear: 55% refused full independence on an 85% turnout.

While some relative improvements occurred compared to an increasingly unequal UK model, Scotland continues to lag against key international competitors in areas where the Parliament has direct control: exports, business growth, investment, and entrepreneurship.

Scotland's productivity gap with the UK average has narrowed from 8% below in 1999 to just 2% below by 2022, but this improvement occurred primarily after 2009. More troubling still, Scotland's tax policies have backfired: after finally using devolved powers to raise income tax rates above UK levels, the revenue collected fell short of what would have been raised under the former UK rates, creating a net loss for the Scottish budget.

Northern Ireland: Total Dysfunction

While the 1998 Good Friday Agreement was endorsed by 71.1% of voters on an 81.1% turnout – a genuinely strong mandate – the subsequent reality has been one of governmental collapse and economic underperformance.

Northern Ireland stands as "the clear outlier" among devolved administrations: the executive was non-operational for more than 40% of the period since 1999, with government instability proving damaging to business confidence. Since the Assembly's inauguration in 1999, Northern Ireland has been without a government for nearly nine of the past 23 years.

Northern Ireland has the lowest productivity among UK nations at £36 per hour worked, compared to the UK average. When devolution began in 1999, Northern Ireland was 20% below the UK average – it has only recently improved to 13% below. It has the highest percentage of early school leavers and the lowest disability employment rate in the UK.

Policy failures compound these problems. Northern Ireland's Renewable Heat Incentive scandal demonstrated how poorly designed devolved policies can actively damage the economy, while the lack of domestic water charges has left infrastructure chronically underfunded.

Endless Institutional Failure

What emerges from examining all three devolved nations is a consistent pattern of institutional weakness disguised as democratic progress. After 25 years, there is "a lack of evidence of any marked devolution dividend in terms of improved economic outcomes". All three devolved nations lag behind England in business innovation, with Northern Ireland and Scotland at only 32% of businesses being "innovation-active" compared to 37% in England.

The fundamental problem is devolution has created additional layers of government without delivering the economic dynamism its proponents promised. In Wales, policies which diverged from England – such as a skills-focused rather than knowledge-rich curriculum – have led to falling performance in international assessments while England's rankings improved. Scotland's approach of higher taxation has reduced revenues. Northern Ireland's instability has deterred investment.

If devolution cannot succeed in Scotland, with its oil revenues, established financial sector, and overwhelming public support, or in Northern Ireland, with its substantial peace dividend funding and unique cross-border institutions, what hope is there for Wales?

The answer is that devolution is systemically flawed. It creates complexity without capability, cost without competence, and politics without productivity. The pattern across all three nations is clear: devolution promises transformation but delivers stagnation.

The Case for Abolition

Devolution was born of a democratic sleight of hand. It has failed to deliver the prosperity and services it promised. It has created waste, blurred accountability, and left Wales poorer and weaker. Scrapping it would:

• Honour the clear verdict of 1979 instead of the manipulated outcome of 1997.
• End costly duplication and waste.
• Ensure the government that spends money also raises it, and is answerable directly to the people.
• Remove a source of division and return Wales to its full, unambiguous place in the United Kingdom.

The democratic foundation of devolution was rotten from the start. Its record has been one of stagnation and failure. To persist with it is to ignore reality.

The people of Wales spoke decisively in 1979. They said No. That verdict was right then, and it is right now.

It is time to end this failed experiment. Wales deserves better than an expensive talking shop in Cardiff Bay. Wales deserves accountable, effective government.